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'Good government' faces its first, and possibly final, test
September 11, 2015 8:48 PM Subscribe

Next Saturday the electorate of Canning, in Western Australia, will go to the polls for a by-election triggered by the death of the sitting member, Don Randall. All eyes* are on Canning because its outcome will likely determine the fate of Australia's current Prime Minister, Tony Abbott. In February, in the aftermath of an attempted leadership spill of his position and amongst flagging opinion polls, Abbott declared 'good government starts today' and pleaded with his party room to give him six more months in which to turn his position in the polls around. Canning is currently a government-held seat, sitting on a margin of 11.8%, and it seems that the metric on which Abbott will be judged is how much that margin shifts.

*sadly most News Ltd. coverage is paywalled, so I haven't linked to any, but rest assured they're in a froth about Canning as well

The candidates:

Slick former military man Andrew Hastie is the candidate of the governing Liberal party. He has come under scrutiny for his actions as leader of a troop under investigation for cutting off the hands of dead Taliban soldiers and for his and his family's religious beliefs. Hastie seems relatively well-liked and the government hopes the electors will vote based on his strengths rather than passing judgement on the Prime Minister's weaknesses.

The Labor candidate, Matt Keogh, is the former president of the Law Society of Western Australia. He is regarded as solid and uncontroversial, describing himself as "not that cool" in a profile by the Guardian.

The Guardian also has a handy guide profiling each of the other ten candidates, but it's extraordinarily unlikely that any of them will win the seat.

The issues:

The candidates' pitches center around the local issues of drug crime, renewable energy, jobs, infrastructure and even the footy, but there's no question that federal issues are playing a large role in the minds of the voters. The government had its first good week in a while this week, announcing that Australia will accept 12,000 refugees from the conflict in Syria and Iraq, but things have quickly unraveled once more with a government minister caught making a series of highly dubious jokes about the effect of rising sea levels on Pacific island nations (whose leaders have responded angrily) as well as news leaked, quite possibly by the Prime Minister's own office, about a possible end-of-year Cabinet reshuffle.

The psephology:

The ABC's well-liked election expert, Antony Green, has made the occasional post on his blog relating to the by-election, from a more scientific perspective.

Psephologists William Bowe and Kevin Bonham are both tracking opinion polls in the electorate closely, and are frequently updating their thoughts on what to expect in terms of results on election day.

A summary: no opinion polls of the electorate have been released in over a week, although one is expected soon. The most recent polls have the margin around 51-49 to the government, a substantial swing that if replicated could certainly have wide-ranging ramifications for the Prime Minister and his government. There is, however, talk that the Liberals are growing increasingly confident of being able to hold the seat by a reasonable margin. And the betting markets have firmed for them over the course of the campaign. Of course, though, the only poll that matters is the one in seven days' time. . .

posted by Quilford (209 comments total) 11 users marked this as a favorite

things have quickly unraveled once more with a government minister caught making a series of highly dubious jokes about the effect of rising sea levels on Pacific island nations

A bit of added context. Not just any minister - the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection, whose portfolio includes refugee issues, joking with the former Minister for Immigration and the Prime Minister. In Parliament. About how climate change is displacing Pacific Islanders from their homes.

Dutton is basically an ambulatory potato, but this is a striking level of stupidity even for him.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 9:30 PM on September 11, 2015 [18 favorites]

The real controversy about Hastie is that he is incredibly evasive about being a creationist. While in the United States this might be par for the course for a congresscritter, Australia has a church attendance rate somewhere in the region of 8%, 47% consider it "irrelevant to my life", and evolution in schools is taught without controversy or "teaching the controversy" even in private Catholic schools. The end result is that being a creationist sticks out like a sore thumb and lends credence to accusation of being a "religious wacko" which, outside of a few select seats of which Canning is not one, puts you at an avowed disadvantage with the electorate.

A few of my friends back home are really not happy with this whackadoo possibly representing them and Canning is a really safe Liberal seat. The rural Liberal voters and upper class WASPs who live in Roleystone far out number the working class of the poorer areas like Armadale that also form part of the seat.
posted by Talez at 9:40 PM on September 11, 2015 [8 favorites]

Frankly, I don't think anything hurts Toned Abs more than his tendancy to keep eating raw onions in public. With the skin on. Even if there's other food available. In front of reporters. With cameras. He's apparently been doing it for years.

John Oliver was in Sydney recently, and his reaction to this news was glorious. From here:

Keeled over with laughter, Oliver dropped to his knees, at a loss for words momentarily before screaming, “WHY DID HE EAT THE SECOND ONE?! Does he lack object permanence? … ‘Oh, that one also looks like an onion, I wonder if it is one’?”

posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 9:44 PM on September 11, 2015 [9 favorites]

Dutton is basically an ambulatory potato, but this is a striking level of stupidity even for him.

And being a bigger moron of an Immigration minister than Amanda Vandstone takes some actual effort. Beating out the Cornelia Rau affair in terms of being a complete fuckup at your job is a hard nut to crack but our man Dutton, with the help of Tony, got over the line!
posted by Talez at 9:45 PM on September 11, 2015 [2 favorites]

I want Abbott to retain the leadership so he can be utterly and thoroughly humiliated and annihilated at the federal election.
posted by Wolof at 9:53 PM on September 11, 2015 [4 favorites]

I want Abbott to retain the leadership so he can be utterly and thoroughly humiliated and annihilated at the federal election.

Do you think that's likely to happen? It's not like Australia didn't know he was a nightmarish asshole before the last election. He was voted in anyway. What's going to be different about this time round? Shorten is still the same manniquin in a bad suit. Abbott's still the same misogynist racist.

The Coalition is still up in the polls compared to Labor - two party preferred is 53%/46% in favour of the Libs, even if 57% disapprove of Abbott personally and slightly more people think that Shorten would be a better PM (35% to Tone's 32%).

Evene with much terrible shit they've done and are continuing to do, the Coalition is still on top right now.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 10:07 PM on September 11, 2015

His thoughts were red thoughts: The Coalition is decidedly not up in the polls, actually; they haven't been ahead on two party preferred for almost 21 months.
posted by Quilford at 10:13 PM on September 11, 2015 [4 favorites]

Yeah, HTWRT, you do have those poll numbers arse about.
posted by wilful at 10:16 PM on September 11, 2015

I want Abbott to retain the leadership so he can be utterly and thoroughly humiliated and annihilated at the federal election.

I want him gone as soon as possible, but I guess I'd be amenable to this if the election were held before September 21, 2016; I don't want him spending more time as PM than Gillard.
posted by Quilford at 10:16 PM on September 11, 2015 [1 favorite]

Though I'm flabbergasted that the worst government in living memory can still attract so many voters. I realise that Blib Shiftlin is poor, but really, the ALP should be embarrassed.
posted by wilful at 10:17 PM on September 11, 2015 [1 favorite]

The Coalition is still up in the polls compared to Labor - two party preferred is 53%/46% in favour of the Libs

Ugh, I'm a moron, I misread that poll. Sorry, all.

It's 40% Libs, 38% Labor, which with preferences from the Greens (at 11%) would put Labor ahead.

Tone's current disapproval rate is 53%, which puts him roughtly on par with Shorten at 52%. But 36% think that Abbott is the better PM over 32% for Shorten.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 10:24 PM on September 11, 2015

Pretty much every week there seems to be a new scandal or screw up, be it nasty jokes about sea levels rising, biased Royal Commissioners, a speaker of the house charging helicopter rides to party events to the public, farcical Border Force events in central Melbourne, the PM defending coal as 'good for the planet', cabinet members leaking against each other regularly, unspeakable cruelty and abuse by staff of asylum seekers, paying people smugglers thousand of dollars, making it an offence for doctors to report human rights abuses and so on and on, to name a few from the last month or so; all in the context of an apparent policy vacuum. Even the dear friend of the far right, Alan Jones, is now making adverts criticising the governments ridiculous changes to environment laws. Surely even the government are sick of it and would want out. Who would want to go to work week after week only to basically do damage control on the latest stupid thing your colleagues have done?
posted by drnick at 10:32 PM on September 11, 2015 [1 favorite]

Heh heh, actually you had the better PM and approval measures right in your first post, His thoughts. Essential has laid out their tables inconsistently so that in the federal voting intention table the most recent result is on the far right, but in the other tables it's on the far left.
posted by Quilford at 10:34 PM on September 11, 2015

Kill me.

Obviously I need more coffee.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 10:35 PM on September 11, 2015 [1 favorite]

No no I'm literally just obsessed with this government's polling figures, hahahhhhhhhh hhhhhh
posted by Quilford at 10:38 PM on September 11, 2015 [1 favorite]

Frankly, I don't think anything hurts Toned Abs more than his tendancy to keep eating raw onions in public. With the skin on. Even if there's other food available. In front of reporters. With cameras. He's apparently been doing it for years.

Actually, as a non-Australian, that's the first thing I've heard about him that makes him into a vaguely interesting, (as well as a horrible) human being.
posted by AdamCSnider at 10:58 PM on September 11, 2015 [1 favorite]

Could we perhaps slide our congress over to you folk, and try to borrow, a perhaps more sane parliamentary body? If such a thing were found to exist of course. I mean, we could throw in a Kardashian or two to sweeten the pot...

It's not as if we're using it and you seem to lack for political entertainment...

No?
Just a thought, no need for violence.
posted by evilDoug at 11:05 PM on September 11, 2015 [1 favorite]

It's not as if we're using it and you seem to lack for political entertainment...

If there is one thing Australian politics will give you it's entertainment. I miss Question Time.
posted by N-stoff at 11:38 PM on September 11, 2015

If there is one thing Australian politics will give you it's entertainment. I miss Question Time.

I'm looking forward to when the Australian Parliament website starts uploading footage of parliamentary proceedings from Keating's time as leader. Should be in the next couple of months.
posted by Quilford at 11:42 PM on September 11, 2015 [2 favorites]

Have we had the Happy Birthday video yet?
posted by Wolof at 12:01 AM on September 12, 2015 [2 favorites]

Scott Ludlam did it better in 2014 imo
posted by Quilford at 12:06 AM on September 12, 2015

Quilford, for real? Where can I learn more about the upload schedule?
posted by No-sword at 2:32 AM on September 12, 2015

You mean the show Rake is real?!
posted by jadepearl at 4:51 AM on September 12, 2015

No-sword, I don't think there's any solid information anywhere about the upload schedule. My source re the 'next couple of months' figure is at the bottom of this Crikey article.
posted by Quilford at 4:54 AM on September 12, 2015

A tweet from WA newspaper The Sunday Times has an opinion poll headline showing a 52-48 2PP margin for the Libs in Canning. If replicated this result would still probably be fatal for the PM, but how much stock we can put in the figure depends on which pollster conducted the survey, what the primary votes are, what preference model is being used and what the sample size was... hopefully further details will be revealed soon.
posted by Quilford at 4:59 AM on September 12, 2015

And here we go.

With the Liberals on 44% of the primary vote and Labor on 36%, 52-48 does seem like a pretty believable two-party preferred headline figure. It was arrived at by modeling preference flows of third party voters after those used at the 2013 federal election; given the special nature of the by-election, the general shift in sentiment towards the Labor party, and the fact that the third parties in this by-election are more leftist than the ones at the last federal election, the result could be even tighter than 52-48. I reckon it's on.

Poll was conducted by Galaxy, who hadn't polled in the seat before now. The sample size has also not been revealed.

Looking for your nightly schadenfreude fix? The article contains bonus leadership speculation:

A senior Liberal MP said: “The Prime Minister’s future is done and dusted. Malcolm is the solution. The bottom line is it cannot go on.’’

posted by Quilford at 5:28 AM on September 12, 2015

Apparently Labor are deliberately trying to throw this election so that Abbott retains the captaincy and can lead his party, with any luck, to a defeat. Which makes sense; Shorten being a nonentity, and the ALP being beholden to chasing the government's tail-lights (witness their vaciliation on “Operation Fortitude”, the Border Force's planned stop-and-search operation in Melbourne), it's not clear that they could win if the Tories were led by anyone who was likeable, charismatic or otherwise credible.

Perhaps the Corbyn win in the UK and Bernie Sanders leading in the US will inspire some people into thinking that the ALP should stand for something other than last week's focus-group results and keeping the Murdoch press sweet by bashing the Greens, though I don't hold out much hope for that.
posted by acb at 5:38 AM on September 12, 2015

HTWRT, I would look to the strikingly similar travails of the qld Newman govt for a template of Abbott's trajectory, should be remain PM. I do think even the dumb shit coalition will realise keeping Abbott will be an onion scented act of self immolation, even if they are too dumb to contemplate turnbull. My hope is that the realisation comes too late.

Even if the various morlocks, pissants and vaguely sentient diatoms comprising the party room can stomach bending over and taking a spanking from the silver fox, I predict resentment and leaking and oh my! Turnbull will have a very unruly ministry and backbench to contain, I expect, it will give him trouble come election time, esp with extra scrutiny on his wan efforts on the nbn and a steady stream of blowback from two years worth of coalition fuck ups and policy in the run. He is the best they've got, but he's hardly a silver bullet.
posted by smoke at 6:33 AM on September 12, 2015 [1 favorite]

What if Abbott falls but Morrison replaces him?
posted by acb at 7:00 AM on September 12, 2015

What if Abbott falls but Morrison replaces him?

Drink?
posted by Mezentian at 7:15 AM on September 12, 2015 [1 favorite]

Okay... Canning, the Seat Of Canning, is on the Blue.

This is as niche as it can get, unless someone from Myanmar is going to pop up and post about a local by-election in Rahkine state,

And yet, is one election is going to bring down a PM.

I also applaud your decision not to bring that mentally-ill woman in,

I, however, have no such compunctions: Teresa van Lieshout. She's Canning's Trump. You can YouTube her.
posted by Mezentian at 7:51 AM on September 12, 2015 [1 favorite]

Does he lack object permanence?

You know, it would explain a lot.
posted by lwb at 8:49 AM on September 12, 2015

And yet, is one election is going to bring down a PM.

If the liberals lose a safe seat they hold by an 11.8% swing then his head will be certainly served on a platter during the leadership spill the next day.
posted by Talez at 8:51 AM on September 12, 2015

My spoon is ready.
And my straw.
posted by Mezentian at 9:21 AM on September 12, 2015 [2 favorites]

His thoughts were red thoughts: "Frankly, I don't think anything hurts Toned Abs more than his tendancy to keep eating raw onions in public. With the skin on. "

Without shedding a tear. Have you Australians ever considered the possibility you might have elected some sort of evil robot? Has he ever leaked oil? Gotten stuck in an infinite loop requiring a reboot? Warned that his battery was below 5%?
posted by double block and bleed at 12:43 PM on September 12, 2015 [2 favorites]

Without shedding a tear. Have you Australians ever considered the possibility you might have elected some sort of evil robot? Has he ever... Gotten stuck in an infinite loop requiring a reboot?

Well, there was that 'shit happens' interview.

posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:36 PM on September 12, 2015 [3 favorites]

Have you Australians ever considered the possibility you might have elected some sort of evil robot?

We have, but Julie Bishop turned out to be the most human of them all…
posted by Pinback at 4:42 PM on September 12, 2015 [1 favorite]

At this point, evil robots would bring some much-needed rationality back into politics.
posted by um at 6:53 PM on September 12, 2015 [2 favorites]

Yeah, they deactivated the eye lasers when they released Julie into the wild, but they left the programming code in, so it thinks it's zapping people.
posted by wilful at 8:05 PM on September 12, 2015

That must be the same person who left out the empathy chip when Sophie Mirabella rolled off the production line; "ADJACENT MEATSACK MALFUNCTIONING. CORE OPERATIONS REMAIN UNIMPEDED".
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 8:22 PM on September 12, 2015 [3 favorites]

The same factory shipped Shorten out without a spine, and a non-functional humour subroutine, so let it not be said that they are partisan.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 8:26 PM on September 12, 2015 [2 favorites]

Polling of Canning and federal voting intention conducted for the Sunday Fairfax papers tomorrow will probably be released tonight.
posted by Quilford at 11:54 PM on September 12, 2015

I *think* they covered the Canning polling on Insiders this morning.
Lib retain, but with a 9-10% swing against them, resulting in a marginal Lib win.

ALP was polling 49% to the LIB's 51%.
posted by Mezentian at 12:19 AM on September 13, 2015

Mezentian: that would be the polling for the News Corp. papers I talked a bit about here. There's another set of poll results out tomorrow for the Fairfax papers that a reliable source says will show another margin of 52-48 to the Liberals in Canning.
posted by Quilford at 1:01 AM on September 13, 2015

I think this is a fine post; well-constructed even. However, I'm not persuaded that a mefi long-boat thread about a by-election in WA next week is the best way to do this. No disrespect intended. I'm from oz and I intended avoiding the subject until later in the week. Anyway, 'nuff said on that.
No matter what happens, 'we all lose', seems like the consequence of any election for the time being. FU ta, bs, mt & all the rest of you political sandcastles of mediocrity.
posted by peacay at 1:22 AM on September 13, 2015

The Fairfax/Ipsos poll might be the one I was thinking of.

Man, it's jarring flicking between this thread and the Corbyn UK Labor post.

Chalk and cheese, you might say.

Imagine a socialist leading the ALP.
posted by Mezentian at 1:33 AM on September 13, 2015

According to Chris Uhlmann, insider creep that he is, it's on no matter what.
posted by wilful at 2:23 AM on September 13, 2015

Channel Nine also reported that Abbott had told News Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch he was considering an early double dissolution election sometime after the Canning by-election next weekend according to the Guardian.

Seems unlikely.
posted by Mezentian at 4:19 AM on September 13, 2015

Double dissolution elections are an utter fantasy and I have no idea why our media continue to raise the concept. Absolute horse shit, and anyone who knows anything about our electoral system knows that. The quota for a Senate seat is halved, the number of minors is dramatically increased. Neither the ALP, the LNP or the Greens particularly want this.
posted by wilful at 4:39 AM on September 13, 2015 [1 favorite]

Double dissolution elections are an utter fantasy and I have no idea why our media continue to raise the concept.

Column inches (or clickbait, as the kids would call it).
Plus, it's a mechanism that exists, and I could see it working if the minors could be wiped out (weren't the ALP and LNP looking at changing the system?), although history suggests it would be hilarious.
posted by Mezentian at 4:45 AM on September 13, 2015

It's a good fantasy though. Heaps of room for speculation, echoes of the dismissal, plus who doesn't rub their hands with glee at the thought of politicians panicking over their own job?
posted by harriet vane at 5:00 AM on September 13, 2015

Question for Australian MeFites: how does mandatory voting affect the political culture, compared to the UK or the US? Do the parties have to stick to the centre (the "median voter"), as opposed to taking stronger ideological positions to fire up a base which is only 30-40% of eligible voters?

It's a difficult question to answer. I think the Overton window is further to the left here than it is in the US, although not by much these days.

it seems to me that there is is a great deal of pandering to swing voters in the larger demographics - witness the constant refrain of 'working families', 'Aussie battlers', 'pensioners doing it hard'...etc. - this is largely the source of the middle class welfare that Talez refers to. Unfortunately, there have also been moves to capitalise on the incipient bigotry of those demographics, so class warfare (lower the minimum wage, reduce penalty rates, cut unemployment benefits, make healthcare more expensive) and racism (Islamophobia, generalised anti-Aboriginal sentiment and policies) are big themes these days. Even so, I don't think the government is reading the room very well on those topics - they are not the vote winners that they think they are. The Border Farce debacle is a good example of an appeal to racists that blew up in their faces. The Government continues to stall and delay on marriage equality despite the fact that 72% of Australians support it.

I think it's related, but religious fundamentalists don't have the same grip that they do in the US. Voters, by and large, aren't influenced by religion when it comes to voting, and this is reflected in voting decisions. Politicians talking about their religion in the context of governing is poorly regarded - there's a reason they used to call Tony Abbott the 'Mad Monk'.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 5:16 PM on September 13, 2015

Do the parties have to stick to the centre (the "median voter"), as opposed to taking stronger ideological positions to fire up a base which is only 30-40% of eligible voters?

That used to be an interpretation that was popular, on the assumption that there was a swinging voter in the middle that had to be appealed to. However, more recently thye've worked out that it's actually the idiot who has utterly no interest in politics except in the last week or few days of the election is the person that has to be appealed to. Everyone who follows politics in any way has already made up their mind over the life of the government. So getting the disengaged voter, who in other countries would just stay home, to vote for you means there's a lot of hip pocket nerve and a lot of crass advertising. And there are some sacred cows in Australian politics, such as Medicare, that you cannot touch.
posted by wilful at 7:22 PM on September 13, 2015 [1 favorite]

Hooo boy, it's on. The Silver Fox is making his move.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 10:47 PM on September 13, 2015

Looks like the idea that Abbott would go the double dissolution route was considered plausible enough to bring forward the challenge before the byelection. Of course a double dissolution would be madness for the Liberals: the point is that many in his party believe he might do anything to hold on for a few more days and a slim chance of more, the rest of them be damned.
posted by hawthorne at 11:02 PM on September 13, 2015

SO ON.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 11:03 PM on September 13, 2015

I am disappointed. I wish Tones would remain leader in order to have a MASSIVE swing at the election.
posted by wilful at 11:05 PM on September 13, 2015 [3 favorites]

Apparently Bishop is with Turnbull on this one. By their powers combined, Tone is toast.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 11:06 PM on September 13, 2015

Of course, Malcolm has voted with the party almost every time, so you have to question whether anything at all would be different under his reign except fewer onion incidents.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 11:22 PM on September 13, 2015 [4 favorites]

OH MAH GAWD
posted by Quilford at 11:23 PM on September 13, 2015

The Australian has the money quotes from #reTurnbull's presser:

“This course of action has been urged on me by many people over a long period of time. It is clear enough that the government is not successful in providing the economic leadership that we need.

“It is not the fault of individual ministers. Ultimately, the Prime Minister has not been capable of providing the economic leadership our nation needs. He has not been capable of providing the economic confidence that business needs.

Mr Turnbull said the country faced enormous economic challenges.

“We need a different style of leadership. We need a style of leadership that explains those challenges and opportunities, explains the challenges and how to seize the opportunities – a style of leadership that respects the people’s intelligence, that explains these complex issues and then sets out the course of action we believe we should take and makes a case for it.

“We need advocacy, not slogans. We need to respect the intelligence of the Australian people.”

Those are big, big swings. He's certainly made some enemies for life, and will preside over a bitterly divided party if he wins.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 11:27 PM on September 13, 2015

But can this mystery potato save Australia from Tony Abbott?
posted by Wolof at 11:27 PM on September 13, 2015 [4 favorites]

But can this mystery potato save Australia from Tony Abbott?

Bloody hell, First Dog is fast. It's only been 45 minutes.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 11:30 PM on September 13, 2015

Someone get me to a hospital cos I'm ODing on schadenfreude
posted by Quilford at 11:34 PM on September 13, 2015 [2 favorites]

Of course, Malcolm has voted with the party almost every time, so you have to question whether anything at all would be different under his reign except fewer onion incidents.

Yes indeed. And the scary thing is his main difference from Abbott is that Turnbull is a better salesman who projects a veneer of sanity.
posted by prettypretty at 11:35 PM on September 13, 2015 [1 favorite]

Leadership spills all round, perhaps? The ALP can't possibly think that Bill Shorten can compete with a sane person, can they?
posted by misfish at 11:49 PM on September 13, 2015

(NOT) BREAKING NEWS: Turnbull to do precisely nothing different if he wins!
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 12:00 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Jeff has a few words to say
posted by prettypretty at 12:10 AM on September 14, 2015

(NOT) BREAKING NEWS: Turnbull to do precisely nothing different if he wins!

Rubbish.
His slogans will be whole sentences.
Smarmy, smarmy sentences, but more than three world slogans.

We can probably not waste $160 million to have a gay marriage plebiscite too.
posted by Mezentian at 12:30 AM on September 14, 2015

Oh, yeah:
#two-thirds-of-a-term-Tony.

Because #One-Term-Tony seems to have been optimistic.
posted by Mezentian at 12:31 AM on September 14, 2015

If Abbott Goes tomorrow, not only will he have never spent a night in the Lodge but he will miss out on getting a PM pension.
posted by AD_ at 1:00 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

If Abbott wins, Dutton will be deputy PM. Good lord.
posted by Quilford at 1:43 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Dream ticket!
posted by Wolof at 1:45 AM on September 14, 2015

Ball Shutin is on ABC right now, desperately begging Tone to stay, while still bashing him and Malcolm. "Malcolm Turnbull is wrong, when he says he's part of the solution... Australia doesn't need another out of touch Liberal leader. Australia needs a new government".
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 1:49 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Dream ticket!

Only if you have dropped the brown acid.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 1:50 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

We can probably not waste $160 million to have a gay marriage plebiscite too.

No, that was my point. The reports are that he is doubling down on the Liberal party's stance on marriage equality, including not allowing a concience vote.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 1:50 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

I think that means he did a deal.
posted by hawthorne at 1:54 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Only if you have dropped the brown acid.

Are you absolutely allergic to the rampant sexual charisma and magnetic personal charm of Peter Dutton? I don't understand some people.
posted by Wolof at 1:54 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

ScoMo has announced he's with Abbott.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 1:57 AM on September 14, 2015

The reports are that he is doubling down on the Liberal party's stance on marriage equality, including not allowing a concience vote.

Huh. And there I was thinking him taking an open vote to the floor of the parliament would be a softball win.
"Oh, look at Malcom, he's such a dreamy pogressive", etc.

And the party would be so Team Unity that all of the kvetching would pretty much be kept to the fringe.
posted by Mezentian at 1:58 AM on September 14, 2015

Watching Shorten's presser on ABC. Good good man, why can't you talk like a normal person! You sound like a bizarre robot reading a story to children. Stop pausing every second word!

Gah. I reckon he had to change his undies this afternoon. Turnbull has many flaws, but that he has Shorten's measure, I've no doubt. Labor will no doubt remain resolute in learning all the wrong lessons from the Rudd-Gillard saga, and will let him lose another election they should have won on principle and unwillingness to listen to constituents.

The media has such a stiffy for Turnbull, it's almost comical. It will take monumental stuff ups for him to get negative coverage.

On his election prospects -
On Turnbull's side:
+ Not Abbott
+ Will clear acres of dead wood in the ministry
+ Has a personality and far, far more articulate and genuine than his competition in either party.
+ Unwilling to die on ideological shite the electorate doesn't care about.
+ Likely to be up against Shorten, a man with the personality of a tissue box

Against Turnbull
- Lots people in the party hate his guts; controlling backbench may become difficult. Will have bitter ex-ministers by the score or a tonne of byelections between now and election
- Apparently toweringly arrogant, doesn't take advice well (but then, if I worked with those guys, I probably would be too...)
- Has promised to keep some unpopular policies, e.g gay marriage plebiscite; cliamte change denial, etc.
- Will still retain a lot of losers on the front bench
- Will struggle to differentiate "new liberal" from "old liberal", will need a substantive budget with something to actually sell that people are interested in buying.
- Will have two-plus years of bad Liberal policies, corruption and decisions coming out of the woodwork between now and election.

I wanted to reject Abbott, emphatically at the ballot box, keep them out for a generation. I suspect that's not to be, now.
posted by smoke at 1:59 AM on September 14, 2015 [7 favorites]

As mentioned earlier a double dissolution would be ridiculous. Which I guess is why Team Silver Fox thought it was plausible Tony "Captain's Pick" Abbott might actually do it.
posted by harriet vane at 1:59 AM on September 14, 2015

If Abbott wins, Dutton will be deputy PM. Good lord.

PDuddy is "not on a leadership ticket with Tony Abbott in tonight’s ballot", so.... volunteers?

Wait. tonight?

Which brassica will be brave enough to join Team Tony as deputy Liberal leader?

Also, the Nat leader is Deputy PM, not the Lib deputy leader.
posted by Mezentian at 2:02 AM on September 14, 2015

The prime minister has my absolute loyalty as I have his.

So, we'll be wanting a new treasurer then?
posted by Mezentian at 2:03 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Morrison is said to be voting for Abbott. If the numbers being talked about are right and Turnbull is going to win, that means Morrison thinks the aftermath will be very ugly indeed.
posted by hawthorne at 2:05 AM on September 14, 2015

Just saw a clip of Abbott spouting off crap: "I firmly believe...our party is better than this, and by god, that our country is so. much. better than this."

Fuck you, you toolbag. We aren't doing this. You pathetic losers are doing this to yourselves.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:06 AM on September 14, 2015 [7 favorites]

Gods if Turnbull wins this I'll still hate the government but at least I wont be embarrassed every time our PM has to meet representatives from other nations. He knows better than to eat onions or leer at people, and can construct a series of intelligent sentences without stopping for a rest.
posted by harriet vane at 2:08 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Morrison is said to be voting for Abbott.

Surprising, given the scuttlebutt about him being new treasurer.
posted by smoke at 2:12 AM on September 14, 2015

Too soon to say what effect this might have on the Canning by-election. Speculation in the article that Turnbull expects Hastie to win and will take credit for it.
posted by harriet vane at 2:13 AM on September 14, 2015

Hey, Truss is playing hardball!

My Coalition agreement is with Tony Abbott. While the leadership is a choice for the Liberals, any change would require a new Coalition agreement and a new message of support to the governor general from me.

Oh no! This would spell the end of the government!
If, you know, anyone expected Truss and the Nats to actually split away.
posted by Mezentian at 2:26 AM on September 14, 2015

The Nats are the kind of parasite that fuses permanently with the host. They'd never, ever leave the Coalition. That is the emptiest bluff that has ever been pokered.

I don't know how poker works.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:31 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Every time I go on leave a spill is called.

Lol at some knob on ABC24 saying the problem is that we didn;t have enough of the 'real' Tony.
posted by kithrater at 2:37 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

What time is the spill meeting?

And, most importantly, has the ABC defrosted Kerry O'Brien yet?
posted by Mezentian at 2:40 AM on September 14, 2015

Erica Betz is on right now. Is it only me that feels nauseous whenever he's seen in public?
posted by wilful at 2:41 AM on September 14, 2015

Meeting is at 9pm.
posted by wilful at 2:41 AM on September 14, 2015

There is...an anthropomorphic egg? on the ABC barracking for Turnbull, with the monotonic delivery of a 10 year old presenting a book report.

Oh, it's Sinodinos. If this is the best that Turnbull can put up, perhaps his chances aren't that good.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:42 AM on September 14, 2015

Abetz and Andrews; a fantastic argument for a Turnbull. Wait and see if Morrison holds a presser.
posted by kithrater at 2:43 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Turnbull: we need more than slogans
Abbott: we stopped the boats.
posted by wilful at 2:43 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Meeting is at 9pm.

Awesome. Just enough time to race down for beer and pizza and tears.
posted by Mezentian at 2:46 AM on September 14, 2015

Cormann, doing his best Terminator impression, is up for Tone: "After February, we had a very good period in government, the budget was well received".

What fucking dream world do these idiots live in?
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:49 AM on September 14, 2015

The budget was well received.
Compared to the previous year.
posted by Mezentian at 2:51 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

That's like saying chlamydia is well received by people. Compared to syphilis.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:53 AM on September 14, 2015 [14 favorites]

^ actual lol
posted by smoke at 2:54 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

"Politics have become a circus," says Cory Bernardi, who routinely compares gay people to bestialists, and has declared it's sometimes appropriate for men to put their intimate partners into headlocks.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 2:57 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

With ScoMoMo on hold, who is Abbott going to nominate as Deputy?
posted by kithrater at 3:06 AM on September 14, 2015

ABC talking about numbers. If Turnbull does not pull this off I will leave the country.
posted by Quilford at 3:09 AM on September 14, 2015

It's not a done deal yet. Think a lot depends on whether ScoMo gets infront of a camera. Deafening silence from Turnbull camp is not a positive sign.
posted by kithrater at 3:12 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Deafening silence from Turnbull camp is not a positive sign.

Disagree. Turnbull and his creatures have nothing to lose now, and no need to campaign to the public. After all, they don't get a vote in this decision - the only voters are the party members. If he wins, Turnbull gets to start with a clean slate. If he loses, the public won't care what he says now. Also, if you have the vote in the bag, what's the point in wasting your breath?

Whereas if Tone survives the vote, he'll need to regain public trust, so he might as well start now.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 3:17 AM on September 14, 2015

I don't mind if Abbott wins at all! He'll be back, somewhat exsanguinated, until the next inevitable challenge. Drag it out, sure — all the more embarrassing when the axe finally falls. Suppose he wins the spill — is he likely to get a bump in the polls?
posted by Wolof at 3:22 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Lots to lose if you speak up and don't win; ministries, pre-selection, campaign funding, etc. Party has hated Turnbull for a long time; anyone that backs him is as good as dead should he lose.

Brandis, Pyne, Robb, Ley, Macfarlane, Billson, Keenan, could collectively sway it either way.
posted by kithrater at 3:28 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Yes, unless there's some bloody James Bond shit going on, I would be gobsmacked if Turnbull doesn't win. You don't challenge, and you don't support unless you're 100% sure.

I think Robb's a foregone conclusion; would love to know where Pyne and Macfarlane are leaning.
posted by smoke at 3:30 AM on September 14, 2015

Lots to lose if you speak up and don't win; ministries, pre-selection, campaign funding, etc.

Turnbull is wildly popular in his seat. The party will continue to preselect him no matter what happens tonight, because if they don't he'll run as in independent and win without breaking a sweat.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 3:35 AM on September 14, 2015

You don't challenge, and you don't support unless you're 100% sure.
Turnbull fell for Godwin Grech.

Meeting is to to be 9.15, it seems.
posted by hawthorne at 3:37 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Maybe Turnbull's just been watching a lot of House of Cards on Netflix.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 3:41 AM on September 14, 2015

Time to start scaring the more impressionable that this is all the work of the ghost of Don Randall.
posted by kithrater at 3:42 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Yeah, there is something odd about the timing.

Why not wait until after Canning?

Why call when not all MPs are in Canberra (ABC doesn't know how many are jetting it), because surely that has to create some bad blood?

I'm convinced Turnbull has the numbers, Bishop wouldn't jump ship if he hadn't.

But, man, I cannot imagine this isn't going to end with Abbott going all Rudd or all Latham.
posted by Mezentian at 3:46 AM on September 14, 2015

Apparently, if Abbott loses, he'll miss out on being eligible for Prime Ministerial pension by about four days. If his colleagues forced the timing, that'd be like a firing squad deciding to “accidentally” aim for the wrong side of the deposed dictator's chest; he must really be massively unpopular to have brought that on himself.
posted by acb at 3:46 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Hastie on ABC, managing to work in the fact he was a soldier 'serving the country' at least two times for every single word he utters. He's such a pompous wanker.
posted by smoke at 3:47 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

redthoughts; it is not Turnbull who is worried about that, but potential supporters. Chris Ulhman on ABC24 is saying that Turnbull camp is claiming Abbott camp is threatening marginal seat holders over campaign funding. This is not going to be pretty.
posted by kithrater at 3:49 AM on September 14, 2015

I think it's related, but religious fundamentalists don't have the same grip that they do in the US. Voters, by and large, aren't influenced by religion when it comes to voting, and this is reflected in voting decisions.

They're doing their best to change that within a generation; they're spending 300M on school chaplains, for example, whilst banning secular counsellors from schools. Presumably the endgame is to have a solid Pentacostal/Evangelical base which can bring out a steady vote for the Tories.
posted by acb at 3:50 AM on September 14, 2015

Hastie on ABC,

With Solarcitizens.org.au man behind him.
In a fedora.
Dressed like the sun.

Awesome.
posted by Mezentian at 3:51 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

Apparently, if Abbott loses, he'll miss out on being eligible for Prime Ministerial pension by about four days.

Meh.
Make the fucker wait six months.
posted by Mezentian at 3:52 AM on September 14, 2015

redthoughts; it is not Turnbull who is worried about that, but potential supporters. Chris Ulhman on ABC24 is saying that Turnbull camp claiming Abbott camp is threatening marginal seat holders over campaign funding. This is not going to pretty.

Yeah, that probably has something to do with the lack of public endorsements of Turnbull, but it won't stop them voting for Malcolm under the veil of the ballot box.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 3:53 AM on September 14, 2015

Oh god that smile on Bronwyn.

Oh god that Andrew Bolt blog post.

This is better than Rudd's troll day.
posted by kithrater at 4:11 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Interesting J.Bish walked in solo.
posted by Mezentian at 4:12 AM on September 14, 2015

Oh, Christ. How many people did Tony just walk in with?
posted by Quilford at 4:16 AM on September 14, 2015

Oh, get on with it you useless bastards.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:16 AM on September 14, 2015 [4 favorites]

there's never a wrong time to ask...
posted by smoke at 4:20 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Oh, Christ. How many people did Tony just walk in with?

About 20-24.
But he put the women-folk up front.

Was that Bolt Fran Kelly was just talking to on ABC 24?
It seems so improbable.
But it has been that kind of day.
posted by Mezentian at 4:35 AM on September 14, 2015

I might actually watch QandA tonight. It offers comedy potential.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:37 AM on September 14, 2015

How the fuck did the little twerp Wyatt Roy make it to Turnbull's shoulder for the big walk in?
posted by wilful at 4:41 AM on September 14, 2015

He came out publicly for Turnbull, and he's not a fucking crook like Sinodinos.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:43 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Drumroll
posted by wilful at 4:49 AM on September 14, 2015

who keeps voting informal?
posted by harriet vane at 4:49 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

FOLY HUCK
posted by Quilford at 4:49 AM on September 14, 2015

Kevin Andrews!
posted by kithrater at 4:50 AM on September 14, 2015

Darn, wanted Abbott to win.

That said, I reckon it's close enough he'll be able to make trouble should he stay in parliament.
posted by smoke at 4:50 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

54 to 44 in favour of ReTurnbull!
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:50 AM on September 14, 2015

Woooooow
posted by prettypretty at 4:50 AM on September 14, 2015

Gone. Fucking gone. Get the fuck out you mad monk.
posted by Talez at 4:50 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

who keeps voting informal?

Heffo?
posted by Mezentian at 4:50 AM on September 14, 2015

Also, woah.
54/44.
posted by Mezentian at 4:51 AM on September 14, 2015

Oh gods, do you think this means that Wyatt Roy gets a cabinet post?
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:51 AM on September 14, 2015

THE HUMILIATION.

NOT EVEN ONE TERM TONY. PART TERM TONY. 66% TERM TONY.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:53 AM on September 14, 2015 [9 favorites]

Nah, progression being what it is, tradition is he has to be secretary first.
posted by smoke at 4:53 AM on September 14, 2015

I was sort of hoping the party room would collapse under the weight of its own evil but I suppose I'm okay with second prize.
posted by langtonsant at 4:54 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

First Dog had this in the can, just waiting: The thoroughly humiliating and extremely satisfying demise of Tony Abbott
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:56 AM on September 14, 2015 [9 favorites]

The list of issues that Malcolm is going to be a disappointment on:
1. Marriage equality (already committed to mainting current party policy)
2. Climate change (already committed to mainting current party policy)
3. Republic (too controversial, no political benefit)
4. NBN (already fuxxored, probably can't be fixed now)
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 5:05 AM on September 14, 2015 [8 favorites]

5. Everything else
posted by langtonsant at 5:07 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

His thoughts were red thoughts just wants to harsh our buzz.
posted by Mezentian at 5:07 AM on September 14, 2015

5. Everything else

Exactly. Turnbull is a change in window dressing.
posted by kisch mokusch at 5:08 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

Joan Baez is the international guest on QandA tonight. I pity her, being caught up in this bullshit.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 5:09 AM on September 14, 2015

Hah.
Gillard's term was longer than Tony's.
LONGER.
posted by Mezentian at 5:09 AM on September 14, 2015 [8 favorites]

Now hopefully this will spur the ALP into ditching Shorten, as there's no way that amorphous nonentity will lead the ALP to victory on his own merit. Shorten's only hope would have been to let the government destroy itself and hope that, in all the confusion, the public choose his side.
posted by acb at 5:09 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

Amorphous Nonentity/umm.... who's the ALP deputy?
Plibbers?
posted by Mezentian at 5:11 AM on September 14, 2015

Albo is the deputy leader. Will never be leader cause factions, but would be great at it.
posted by smoke at 5:12 AM on September 14, 2015

His thoughts were red thoughts just wants to harsh our buzz.

Nah, I'm fucking thrilled. Anything to make Abbott sad. If he was eaten by dingos tomorrow, I would open a bottle of scotch and raise a toast in celebration of his death.

But this was a win/win. If Turnbull won, Abbott would be humiliated and sad, and we could drink deep of his delicious tears. If Abbott won, the party would be shaken and lose their Comms minister and Deputy Leader. And Turnbull would continue undermining for the rest of term.

Still, Blimp Shoethin is going to have a hard time running against Malcolm. But he would have had a hard time running against a bunch of old shoes in a hessian sack .
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 5:16 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

"Tony Abbott's political legacy.... which we have been talking about for several minutes now".

Harsh, fake Tony Jones.
Harsh.
posted by Mezentian at 5:19 AM on September 14, 2015

Those shoes really stand for something!
posted by smoke at 5:19 AM on September 14, 2015

IsTonyAbbottStillPrimeMinister.com
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 5:21 AM on September 14, 2015

About a million years ago I remember reading a blog post when such things were still a novelty, written by an American academic, explaining why he didn't bother following politics. His logic was that you didn't actually need to think to work out who to vote for because one party was so self-evidently evil that unless you were planning to move into a policy/advocacy/activist space yourself, it wasn't worth the effort. At the time I felt so unbearably smug as an Australian: the first election I'd had to vote in was Howard v Keating, and the bastards actually made you have to think to work out why you wanted to vote the way you did. (At least that's how it felt - I swear Howard didn't seem so obviously ghastly in 1996, naive as that sounds in hindsight)

This is all by way of saying that I blame Abbott for the fact that I've completely disengaged from politics. Never in my adult life have I seen an Australian political leader so viciously incompetent, so overwhelmingly appalling and cruel, so utterly deserving of contempt as Tony Abbott. Since the last election I have barely read a newspaper article, turned on the TV or listened to the radio. I have had the Stop Tony Meow browser extension installed in the vain hope that I could read the news without wanting to claw my eyes out (or his). For the sake of my own mental health I have completely failed to remain engaged with politics in this country over the last two years because of this man. I have never hated any politician like this before, George W. Bush notwithstanding. So yeah, like First Dog on the Moon says...

DO NOT LET THE DOOR HIT YOUR ARSE ON THE WAY OUT CHAMP.
posted by langtonsant at 5:33 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Gawd I've always disliked Chris Uhlmann, it's turning into something much stronger. The worst of the "insiders".
posted by wilful at 5:37 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Shortest serving PM since Holt.
posted by smoke at 5:38 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

The first and second editions of the Herald Sun
posted by Quilford at 5:38 AM on September 14, 2015

Yeah, I thought I hated Howard after his first term (voted Keating but as you say, Howard didn't seem completely evil at first). But at least he was able to act like a grown-up in public, and speak intelligibly on a range of subjects.

And defending the stop the boats bullshit? Bite me, Uhlmann.
posted by harriet vane at 5:39 AM on September 14, 2015 [3 favorites]

smoke: "Shortest serving PM since Holt."

HA HA HA HA HA HA.

(I may have had more to drink than is wise)
posted by langtonsant at 5:40 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

"Shortest serving PM since Holt."

I think we can all agree that Tony should follow Holt's example and GET IN THE SEA. AND NOT COME OUT.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 5:42 AM on September 14, 2015 [8 favorites]

(At least that's how it felt - I swear Howard didn't seem so obviously ghastly in 1996, naive as that sounds in hindsight)

Don't feel so bad. He appealed to the worst in the Australian people for over a decade and stayed in power because of it. My first election was "Children Overboard" and the Democrats imploding after the betrayal of Meg Lees. What a time to join Australian politics.

You know how hard it is to get excited about politics when you enter the voting world and you're holding your nose and voting THE GREENS?
posted by Talez at 5:44 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Pyne supposedly to be Defence Minister and pork barrel South Australia with the $50b shipbuilding pledge.
posted by Quilford at 5:44 AM on September 14, 2015

I think we can all agree that Tony should follow Holt's example and GET IN THE SEA. AND NOT COME OUT.

The key difference between Holt and Abbott seems to be Chinese submarines and Japanese submarines.
posted by acb at 5:46 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Quilford: "Pyne supposedly to be Defence Minister and pork barrel South Australia with the $50b shipbuilding pledge."

Oh FFS. I know Adelaide needs the work and I know the defence industry is only here to prop up the failing manufacturing sector, and maybe I'm not the right person to comment since I'm leaving town anyway, but I fucking swear that if I have to see that vicious little fuck showing his face outside the eastern suburbs as if he gave even a single fuck about this city I'm going to... probably just collapse in a heap, to be honest.
posted by langtonsant at 5:56 AM on September 14, 2015

Perhaps a crushing defeat for the ALP at the next election will be a good thing, in the long term, if it hastens the Greens replacing it as the progressive alternative government party. What is the ALP even for these days? Its founding myth of the mass industrial proletariat has been out of date for generations, the unions have declined to a few reactionary rumps, primarily concerned with defending their power bases at all costs from the encroaching tide of irrelevance, and the party has no idea what it stands for, and so is paralysed in focus groups and content-free spin, like some Hey Dad-grade shit version of Blairism. Its internal structure is a byzantine webwork of factions (see also: reactionary power bases) sniping at each other. It's like Ballmer-era Microsoft, just as Apple and Google started eating their lunch. When in opposition, it does not dare to actually oppose, preferring to instead rubber-stamp the government's worst ideas and attack the Greens, as Rupert's hacks told them it'll get them points with the low-information bogan battlers in the suburbs. What is the actual point of the ALP these days?
posted by acb at 6:01 AM on September 14, 2015 [4 favorites]

I'm sympathetic to that point of view, but have things ever worked out that way before? That people get rid of the centrist party for a proper X-wing one after a bout of Y-wing one? (ooh, unintentional Star Wars reference!)
posted by harriet vane at 6:07 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

What is the ALP even for these days?

Bipartisanship in brutalizing asylum seekers.
posted by Talez at 6:20 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

I'm wondering where weasel Pyne is going to pop up; I can't imagine he wasn't in this up to his neck.
posted by Wolof at 6:44 AM on September 14, 2015

Sth Australia. Submarines. Defence Minister.
posted by hawthorne at 6:46 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

So, does this ever happen in other Westminster-style democracies? This unseating of a prime minister in advance of a general election? Because this has happened a couple of times in Australia recently, I think, and I don't immediately recall it happening in the UK or Canada.

American, sorry if being naive.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:54 AM on September 14, 2015

Can't speak for other countries, but it's about the 3rd time in 5 years for Australia. Whatever you think of the deposed leaders, it's downright embarrassing that they keep getting knifed this way.
posted by pianissimo at 7:00 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

So, does this ever happen in other Westminster-style democracies?

Yes, yes it does.

John Major in the UK, if memory serves, ousted Thatcher.

But we seem to have made a habit of it in the last few years.
posted by Mezentian at 7:02 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Pyne makes me yearn for the good old days of Downer, Vanstone and Hill. Okay, I admit I actually do miss Robert Hill, if only because someone needed to put the knife to Downer as often as possible. No fucking idea why he was in the liberal party.
posted by langtonsant at 7:02 AM on September 14, 2015

langtonsant: Pyne makes me YEARN.

If MeFi was a filthy gutter press....
posted by Mezentian at 7:09 AM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Presumably, in other Westminster countries, the electorate usually isn't so naive to believe that anything will change with a change in face. We get the government we deserve. Like the Rudd return, this was all about polling. They'll keep doing it provided the polls tell them it will help.

I'm actually personally quite dissatisfied with today's result. The Libs will use it as an opportunity to avoid accountability. It will be like Budget 1 and Budget 2 never happened. I wanted Abbott gone as much as the next person, but it would have been much more satisfying to have seen it happen at the hands of the voters. Especially if it meant that the LNP took a hit as well.
posted by kisch mokusch at 7:11 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Chrissie Pyne styled his absurd diction on Alexander Downer. Nobody else in Pyne's family speaks that way; it's pure affectation.
posted by Wolof at 7:12 AM on September 14, 2015

And, finally, the last nail:

Congratulations to Malcolm Turnbull on becoming Prime Minister - a great honour and responsibility. JG
— Julia Gillard (@JuliaGillard) September 14, 2015

Shy of an Abbott presser, I'm off to bed.
posted by Mezentian at 7:17 AM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Lee Lin Chin's Twitter feed has been hilarious throughout
posted by Quilford at 9:10 AM on September 14, 2015

I don't immediately recall it happening in the UK or Canada.

Paul Martin's clique pushed out Jean Chretien with 2 years to go before an election (which Martin of course lost). It also happens quite a lot at the provincial level in Canada.

In Alberta for example the premier was pushed out three times in a row I think.
posted by Nevin at 9:50 AM on September 14, 2015

Fair enough. Thanks for the examples, all.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:07 AM on September 14, 2015

In Alberta, the premier being pushed out was the only way the government changed for 40-odd years.
posted by sauril at 12:27 PM on September 14, 2015

http://istonyabbottstillprimeminister.com/

http://istonystillpm.com/ is a bit more satisfying.
posted by andraste at 3:54 PM on September 14, 2015

http://istonystillpm.com/ is a bit more satisfying.

Ooh, yes, it is. The before and after is nice.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 5:28 PM on September 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Meanwhile #whereistony is trending on Twatter because amazingly, 12 hours after losing his office, he hasn't yet said anything in public about it.
posted by awfurby at 6:31 PM on September 14, 2015

Meanwhile #whereistony is trending on Twatter because amazingly, 12 hours after losing his office, he hasn't yet said anything in public about it.

And Turnbull can't be sworn in until Tone resigns.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:35 PM on September 14, 2015

Tone should pull a NT Chief Minister and refuse to resign lel
posted by Quilford at 6:40 PM on September 14, 2015

I'm not surprised he's gone to ground. He's always been a political bully and he's been told to go away. He's a sulking sook.
posted by michswiss at 6:43 PM on September 14, 2015 [2 favorites]

Abbott allegedly packing up his office w staffers
posted by Quilford at 6:49 PM on September 14, 2015

He's going to make a statement at 12:30, presumably after Credlin calms him down from his ongoing full-scale toddler freakout, and makes him blow his nose and put away his blankie.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 7:03 PM on September 14, 2015

Ooh, Skeletor is taking the podium too concede.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 7:41 PM on September 14, 2015

Labor bashing, Labor bashing, Labor bashing, unions are corrupt...
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 7:41 PM on September 14, 2015

Stopped the boats! Drink!
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 7:42 PM on September 14, 2015

Lol all the dead wood on this front bench
posted by Quilford at 9:43 PM on September 14, 2015

So, guys, who is the Minister for Women just now?
posted by Mezentian at 12:52 AM on September 15, 2015

Still Tones, isn't it?
posted by mythical anthropomorphic amphibian at 2:36 AM on September 15, 2015 [1 favorite]

Fact file: Australia's shortest serving prime ministers by time in office

So, Turnbnull is PM 29 and we have had nine PMs in office less than Tony?

Wow.
posted by Mezentian at 3:01 AM on September 15, 2015

Plus, the whole Holt thing, which reminds me of Hunt for Red October - "Bruce, you've *lost* your Prime Minister?"
posted by Chrysostom at 7:08 AM on September 15, 2015 [1 favorite]

Well, folks, time to see another highly partisan religious wonk into Parliament
posted by Quilford at 8:14 AM on September 18, 2015

7% swing before the postal votes.
It's hardly a ringing endorsement of Malc, but better then they had expected.

Meanwhile, in Canberra ...
posted by Mezentian at 10:47 PM on September 19, 2015

Joe Hockey will resign from Parliament in due course, Mr Turnbull said. He thanked Mr Hockey for his years of dedicated public service.

Sore.
Fucking.
Loser.
posted by Mezentian at 3:09 AM on September 20, 2015

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